Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 28.739006 31.910595 35.527739 40.015269 45.516611 52.157873 60.973994
2025-06-22 24.065439 28.045839 32.987975 39.772643 49.198246 62.463796 83.964361
2025-06-29 20.816530 25.057646 30.641440 38.900373 51.577852 72.011498 112.621643
2025-07-06 19.399087 24.069542 30.574564 40.951460 58.710444 92.438605 182.346418
2025-07-13 17.676457 22.359342 29.124814 40.487036 61.531641 107.141978 269.558869
2025-07-20 16.488944 21.219989 28.286098 40.742176 65.698116 128.178235 460.767978
2025-07-27 15.543253 20.302792 27.621407 41.100478 70.206532 155.057808 978.556380
2025-08-03 14.662008 19.377741 26.799486 40.969370 73.606668 183.620382 3053.833038
2025-08-10 13.844024 18.466659 25.877720 40.448120 75.896650 212.749751 117889.891112
2025-08-17 13.237843 17.829877 25.337187 40.571342 79.985747 260.210717 NaN
2025-08-24 12.645789 17.164559 24.669220 40.298952 82.917299 312.081939 NaN
2025-08-31 12.089467 16.514473 23.960166 39.811642 85.066297 370.184900 NaN
2025-09-07 11.580300 15.915847 23.303511 39.373157 87.427983 449.866519 NaN
2025-09-14 11.146527 15.414405 22.780421 39.162102 90.631498 574.545498 NaN
2025-09-21 10.675540 14.821978 22.038103 38.322083 91.223954 681.397628 NaN
2025-09-28 10.570401 14.838956 22.442122 40.327395 104.525297 1519.789476 NaN
2025-10-05 10.206131 14.388240 21.904436 39.876594 107.100000 2349.574769 NaN
2025-10-12 9.941690 14.095214 21.650869 40.126339 113.386464 6209.632009 NaN
2025-10-19 9.705828 13.838250 21.446502 40.476156 120.717904 181520.455968 NaN
2025-10-26 9.442183 13.517957 21.088867 40.348473 125.535236 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.162551 13.155801 20.620205 39.840165 127.894407 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.955124 12.913147 20.380834 39.960386 134.659669 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 8.728415 12.625282 20.027415 39.694705 138.814305 NaN NaN